恒加试验下LED照明灯的三参数Weibull分布的参数估计

Parameter Estimations of Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution for LED Lamps Under Constant Stress Accelerated Test

摘要:

三参数Weibull分布拟合LED照明灯寿命的优势较为明显,但要得到三参数Weibull分布参数较为精确的点估计较为困难。目前常用的参数估计方法有极大似然法、矩估计法、Bayes估计法等,由于其计算的方程复杂,导致软件编程繁琐,不易掌握,而且也不一定能得到参数估计。鉴于此,文章针对恒加试验提出一种简便地求解三参数Weibull分布参数估计的方法,该方法不涉及超越方程的求解问题,软件编程相当简单,且统计思想清晰。通过LED照明灯恒加试验下的几个案例数据说明方法的应用,并与已有的方法做了对比分析。

Abstract:

Three-parameter Weibull distribution has obvious advantages in fitting the life of LED lamps, but it is not easy to obtain more accurate point estimations of three-parameter Weibull distribution. At present, the commonly used parameter estimation methods, such as maximum likelihood method, moment estimation method, Bayes estimation method, etc., have complex equations, which makes the software programming very troublesome and difficult to master, and the parameter estimations may not be obtained. In view of this, a simple method to estimate the parameters of three-parameter Weibull distribution is proposed for the constant stress accelerated test in this paper. This method did not involve the solution of transcendental equation so that the software programming was quite simple, and the statistical idea was clear. The application of the method was illustrated by several case data of LED lamps under constant stress accelerated test, and the comparative analysis was made with the existing methods.